Godin’s iPhone Challenge

Seth Godin has issued a challenge to marketing pundits to predict the number of iPhones Apple will sell in the coming months and years. He cites a posting from Laura Ries, in which she proclaims the iPhone will see the same fate as the Nokia N-Gage, Microsoft's WebTV and others. I understand Laura's points about convergence devices. However, the thing that will separate iPhone from these other devices is the same thing that separates Apple's products from most of its competitors: usability. Apple will ensure the iPhone is a joy to use, as it does with all of its products. Unfortunately Nokia, Microsoft and many others don't do the same and, in many cases, it can be the determining factor in success or failure.

For the record, I predict that Apple will sell 2.5 million iPhones in 2007 (6 months mind you) and over 4 million in 2008.